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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 76 cents per share, unchanged in the past 60 days, implying a 40.7% increase from the year-ago level.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.3 billion, suggesting a 14% rise from the prior-year level. For the fiscal fourth quarter, management expects revenues to be in the range of $1.24 billion to $1.32 billion.
Ciena’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters while lagging in the remaining. It delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.9%, on average.
Key Drivers Shaping CIEN’s Q4 Results
Ciena’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been driven by expanding and well-diversified demand across both the Cloud Provider and Service Provider segments. Solid order momentum is expected to convert into revenue and improved profitability. Direct Cloud Provider revenues surged 94% year over year in the fiscal third quarter. Cloud providers are rapidly investing in AI, with many having increased AI spending during the to-be-reported quarter. Globally, more than $7 trillion is projected to be invested in data centers, GPUs, power infrastructure, and AI models by 2030, with networking capturing an increasing share of that investment.
Cloud and Service Provider customers are prioritizing network investments to support AI-driven traffic growth, highlighting long-term opportunities for its Systems and Interconnects businesses. To capitalize on this, it is focusing R&D on Coherent Optical Systems, Interconnects, Coherent Routing, and solutions like DCOM, while scaling back investments in residential broadband. Existing broadband products will continue to be sold and supported.
The increasing demand for high-speed connectivity strongly aligns with Ciena’s core strengths. Its portfolio, including WaveLogic, RLS, Navigator, and Interconnect solutions, is widely regarded as the industry benchmark for AI-ready networks. With an 18-24 month technology lead and strong global customer relationships, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. Ciena secured a major North American AI infrastructure project focused on training and connecting geographically distributed GPU clusters. The industry-first build uses its RLS platform and WaveLogic 6 Nano 800G ZR technology, with initial shipments underway and revenues expected to grow into the hundreds of millions over the quarters.
Its interconnects portfolio is growing and offers a big opportunity for pluggables and component technologies. Routing and Switching achieved a record shipping in the fiscal third quarter, driven by strong demand for the Data Center Out-of-Band network management solution. Also, a major hyperscaler placed its first large 400ZR+ order, positioning Ciena as its lead supplier. This supports expectations to at least double Interconnect revenues in 2025, with potential for further growth in fiscal 2026.
Blue Planet plays a key role in major provider projects, supporting digital transformation with AI and data-driven tools. We expect fiscal fourth-quarter Blue Planet revenues to surge 46.3% year over year to $34.3 million. Revenues from Global Services and Platform Software and Services are pegged at $157.7 million and $114 million, up 11% and 14.4% year over year, respectively. Strong demand for RLS optical gear and Routing and Switching solutions is aiding the bottom line. We expect sales from this unit to hit $79.6 million in the quarter under review.
However, tariff volatility, rising costs to pursue accretive investments and stiff rivalry continue to weigh on its performance. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $390 million and $400 million, driven by strong orders and performance-linked incentives. The adjusted gross margin is estimated between 42% and 43%, with growth expected going ahead.
Key Recent Business Updates
In November, Fidium used Ciena’s advanced optical tech to launch up to 400G wavelength services across its growing DASH fiber network, linking Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. This upgrade puts the network at the leading edge of Texas’ tech corridor.
In October, Colt and Ciena deployed a new high-capacity transatlantic and terrestrial terabit network for two global content providers. Using Ciena’s WL6e technology, the upgrade boosts capacity by 20% on a single fiber and cuts space, power use, and emissions by 50%. It builds on their 2024 milestone of sending a 1.2 Tbps wavelength across the Atlantic.
To meet India’s rising global connectivity needs, FLAG is using Ciena’s WL6e technology to upgrade its Chennai–Singapore and Mumbai–Singapore routes. With Ciena’s GeoMesh Extreme, FLAG can now carry 400GbE services and soon support 800GbE.
In September, Ciena inked a definitive agreement to acquire Nubis Communications, a privately held company based in New Providence, NJ. Valued at $270 million in an all-cash transaction, the acquisition strengthens Ciena’s ability to address the growing need for scalable, low-latency interconnect technologies that power AI workloads.
What Our Model Predicts for CIEN
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for CIEN in this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
CIEN has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 17. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $12.5 billion, implying 44% growth from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for MU’s earnings is pegged at $3.77 per share, implying a 110.6% surge from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Campbell's Company (CPB - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Dec. 9. CPB has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.66 billion, implying a 4.1% drop from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has declined by a penny in the past 30 days to 73 cents per share, which indicates a drop of almost 18% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Dec. 10. SNPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.25 billion, implying a 37.6% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $2.79 per share, which indicates a drop of almost 18% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
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Ciena's Q4 Earnings Coming Up: What's in the Cards for CIEN Stock?
Key Takeaways
Ciena Corporation (CIEN - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Dec. 11, before market open.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 76 cents per share, unchanged in the past 60 days, implying a 40.7% increase from the year-ago level.
The consensus estimate for revenues is pegged at $1.3 billion, suggesting a 14% rise from the prior-year level. For the fiscal fourth quarter, management expects revenues to be in the range of $1.24 billion to $1.32 billion.
Ciena’s earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters while lagging in the remaining. It delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 13.9%, on average.
Key Drivers Shaping CIEN’s Q4 Results
Ciena’s fiscal fourth-quarter performance is likely to have been driven by expanding and well-diversified demand across both the Cloud Provider and Service Provider segments. Solid order momentum is expected to convert into revenue and improved profitability. Direct Cloud Provider revenues surged 94% year over year in the fiscal third quarter. Cloud providers are rapidly investing in AI, with many having increased AI spending during the to-be-reported quarter. Globally, more than $7 trillion is projected to be invested in data centers, GPUs, power infrastructure, and AI models by 2030, with networking capturing an increasing share of that investment.
Cloud and Service Provider customers are prioritizing network investments to support AI-driven traffic growth, highlighting long-term opportunities for its Systems and Interconnects businesses. To capitalize on this, it is focusing R&D on Coherent Optical Systems, Interconnects, Coherent Routing, and solutions like DCOM, while scaling back investments in residential broadband. Existing broadband products will continue to be sold and supported.
The increasing demand for high-speed connectivity strongly aligns with Ciena’s core strengths. Its portfolio, including WaveLogic, RLS, Navigator, and Interconnect solutions, is widely regarded as the industry benchmark for AI-ready networks. With an 18-24 month technology lead and strong global customer relationships, Ciena is well-positioned to capitalize on these opportunities. Ciena secured a major North American AI infrastructure project focused on training and connecting geographically distributed GPU clusters. The industry-first build uses its RLS platform and WaveLogic 6 Nano 800G ZR technology, with initial shipments underway and revenues expected to grow into the hundreds of millions over the quarters.
Its interconnects portfolio is growing and offers a big opportunity for pluggables and component technologies. Routing and Switching achieved a record shipping in the fiscal third quarter, driven by strong demand for the Data Center Out-of-Band network management solution. Also, a major hyperscaler placed its first large 400ZR+ order, positioning Ciena as its lead supplier. This supports expectations to at least double Interconnect revenues in 2025, with potential for further growth in fiscal 2026.
Ciena Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
Ciena Corporation price-eps-surprise | Ciena Corporation Quote
Blue Planet plays a key role in major provider projects, supporting digital transformation with AI and data-driven tools. We expect fiscal fourth-quarter Blue Planet revenues to surge 46.3% year over year to $34.3 million. Revenues from Global Services and Platform Software and Services are pegged at $157.7 million and $114 million, up 11% and 14.4% year over year, respectively. Strong demand for RLS optical gear and Routing and Switching solutions is aiding the bottom line. We expect sales from this unit to hit $79.6 million in the quarter under review.
However, tariff volatility, rising costs to pursue accretive investments and stiff rivalry continue to weigh on its performance. Adjusted operating expenses are projected to be between $390 million and $400 million, driven by strong orders and performance-linked incentives. The adjusted gross margin is estimated between 42% and 43%, with growth expected going ahead.
Key Recent Business Updates
In November, Fidium used Ciena’s advanced optical tech to launch up to 400G wavelength services across its growing DASH fiber network, linking Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. This upgrade puts the network at the leading edge of Texas’ tech corridor.
In October, Colt and Ciena deployed a new high-capacity transatlantic and terrestrial terabit network for two global content providers. Using Ciena’s WL6e technology, the upgrade boosts capacity by 20% on a single fiber and cuts space, power use, and emissions by 50%. It builds on their 2024 milestone of sending a 1.2 Tbps wavelength across the Atlantic.
To meet India’s rising global connectivity needs, FLAG is using Ciena’s WL6e technology to upgrade its Chennai–Singapore and Mumbai–Singapore routes. With Ciena’s GeoMesh Extreme, FLAG can now carry 400GbE services and soon support 800GbE.
In September, Ciena inked a definitive agreement to acquire Nubis Communications, a privately held company based in New Providence, NJ. Valued at $270 million in an all-cash transaction, the acquisition strengthens Ciena’s ability to address the growing need for scalable, low-latency interconnect technologies that power AI workloads.
What Our Model Predicts for CIEN
Our proven model does not predict an earnings beat for CIEN in this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. This is not the case here.
CIEN has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies that, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this season:
Micron Technology (MU - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Dec. 17. It has an Earnings ESP of +2.46% and sports a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $12.5 billion, implying 44% growth from the year-ago quarter. The consensus estimate for MU’s earnings is pegged at $3.77 per share, implying a 110.6% surge from the year-ago quarter. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Campbell's Company (CPB - Free Report) is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on Dec. 9. CPB has an Earnings ESP of +0.28% and carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.66 billion, implying a 4.1% drop from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings has declined by a penny in the past 30 days to 73 cents per share, which indicates a drop of almost 18% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.
Synopsys Inc. (SNPS - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on Dec. 10. SNPS has an Earnings ESP of +0.46% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2.25 billion, implying a 37.6% rise from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $2.79 per share, which indicates a drop of almost 18% from the figure reported in the year-ago quarter.